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Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling

Automatic Simulations for Forest Fire Smoke in Canada

 

Technical Documentation

 

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MODELLING PARAMETERS

 

The atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling simulations for forest fire smoke are produced automatically based on the emission scenario given in the table below.

 

MODELLING PARAMETERS

Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Model

MLDP in forward mode in time

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model

Meteorology driving the dispersion model is from CMC’s GEM high resolution model HRDPS at 2.5 km horizontal grid mesh from forecast cycles valid at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC and with time frequency of meteorological fields of 1 h.

Number of fires

Hotspots are obtained from Natural Resources Canada’s Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) via multiple sources:

1.       Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery, courtesy of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS).

 

2.       Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, courtesy of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), and from the Active Fire Mapping Program, Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. (activefiremaps.fs.fed.us)

 

3.       Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) imagery, courtesy of University of Maryland and RSAC.

Last 48-h hotspots detected by satellite imagery are assimilated.

Not all fires can be identified from satellite imagery, either because the fires are too small or because cloud cover obscures the satellite’s view of the ground. The position of the fire on the terrain relative to the location of the sensor may also preclude the ability for detection.

Location of fires may vary from one simulation to another as the information is updated regularly.

Emission times

00 UTC – 24 h with HRDPS 00 UTC forecast cycle

06 UTC – 24 h with HRDPS 06 UTC forecast cycle

12 UTC – 24 h with HRDPS 12 UTC forecast cycle

18 UTC – 24 h with HRDPS 18 UTC forecast cycle

Emission duration

Continuous

Forecast duration

48 h

Averaging output period

1 h

Pollutant

PM2.5

Emission mass

Estimated on total fuel consumption from the CWFIS

Output domains

Canada (10 km grid mesh)

Southern British Columbia

Fernie, Cranbrook, Kimberley, Creston, Nelson, Castlegar, Trail, Revelstoke

Squamish, Whistler, Lillooet, Lytton, Merritt, Kamloops, Vernon, Kelowna, Penticton

Williams Lake, 100 Mile House, Quesnel, Prince George

Northern British Columbia

Northern British Columbia and Alberta

Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan

Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan

Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Southern Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

Southern Ontario (Great Lakes)

Southern Quebec

Northern Quebec

Atlantic Canada: Western Region

Atlantic Canada: Eastern Region

Southern Nova Scotia

Yukon

Northwest Territories

Nunavut

Output horizontal grid mesh

Canada: 10 km

Other domains: 2.5 and 5 km

 

 

 

INFORMATION ON PRODUCTS

 

These products are published by the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s (CMC) Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS) and are updated four times a day in synchronization with the latest meteorological forecasts of the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) at 2.5 km horizontal grid mesh. These meteorological forecasts drive the MLDP atmospheric dispersion model.

 

These simulations are based on the emission scenario described above in the modelling parameters table for planning and prevention purposes (e.g. command post establishment, guidance for air and ground sampling) for emergency management organizations.

 

Red dots displayed on the maps represents the detected hotspots used in the modelling.

 

Blue dots displayed on the maps represents main cities.

 

The near-ground (with the layer SFC-250 m) modelled PM2.5 concentrations (micrograms/m3) are displayed according to the color bar scale.

 

Modelled smoke concentrations can vary greatly from one fire to another and from one simulation to another due to the diurnal cycle, the meteorological conditions prevailing at the location and time of emission, the behaviour of the fire and the presence of cloud cover precluding the detection of hotspots by the sensors.

 

The mean sea-level pressure field is superimposed on the animations. This field is depicted with isobars (thin solid black lines) every 4 hPa.

 

The low level wind field (near the surface, i.e. at 40 m above ground level) is displayed in background on the animations and is depicted with thin grey barbs. The wind speed is expressed in knots. The wind speed scale is displayed in the lower right corner.

 

The date and time of validity of the forecast are displayed in the upper left corner in the time zone of the region (UTC or daylight saving time).

 

Since the simulations use high spatial and temporal resolution data, some topographical effects might be well captured by the dispersion model (e.g. channeling effects). In some cases, higher resolution data may be required.

 

Authorized users may request assistance in interpretation of products by contacting the Environmental Emergency Response Section (EERS) at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC).

 

Note that for each domain:

1)      A time animation of the forecast of PM2.5 concentrations is available and can be viewed using the anim.html file (for online visualization).

2)      A time animation of the forecast of PM2.5 concentrations is available and can be viewed by downloading the zip file (for offline visualization).

3)      Near-ground modelled PM2.5 concentrations forecast is available by downloading the georeferenced Shapefile format file (shp.zip).

 

 

TIME ZONE CONVERSION TABLE FOR CANADA

UTC

NDT

(UTC – 02:30)

ADT

(UTC – 03:00)

EDT

(UTC – 04:00)

EST

(UTC – 05:00)

CDT

(UTC – 05:00)

CST

(UTC – 06:00)

MDT

(UTC – 06:00)

PDT

(UTC – 07:00)

-

St. John’s

Halifax

Saint John

Montréal

Toronto

Ottawa

Coral Harbour

Winnipeg

Rankin Inlet

Saskatoon

Regina

Edmonton

Calgary

Vancouver

Victoria

00:00

21:30

21:00

20:00

19:00

19:00

18:00

18:00

17:00

06:00

03:30

03:00

02:00

01:00

01:00

00:00

00:00

23:00

12:00

09:30

09:00

08:00

07:00

07:00

06:00

06:00

05:00

18:00

15:30

15:00

14:00

13:00

13:00

12:00

12:00

11:00

 

 

OTHER AVAILABLE PRODUCTS

 

The Environmental Data Processing Applications Section (EDPAS) provides additional air quality products for smoke forest fires over Canada through the FireWork system:

Weather Office

Collaboration (password protected site)

 

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides additional air quality products for smoke fires over Canada such as Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Forecasts.

 

 

MAIN FEATURES OF MLDP AND FIREWORK SYSTEMS

 

The following document describes the main features of complementary MLDP and FireWork systems.

 

 

REMARK

 

High-resolution products on small geographical domains can be configured differently upon users’ requests.

 

 

REFERENCES TO MLDP MODEL

 

Hoffman, I., Malo, A., Ungar, K., 2022, “Uncertainty and source term reconstruction with environmental air samples”, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 246, 106836, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.106836.

 

Hoffman, I., Malo, A., Mekarski, P., Yi, J., Zhang, W., Ek, N., Bourgouin, P., Wotawa, G., Ungar, K., 2020, “Mapping the deposition of 137Cs and 131I in North America following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Reactor accident”, Atmospheric Environment: X, 6, 100072, doi:10.1016/j.aeaoa.2020.100072.

 

Maurer, C., Baré, J., Kusmierczyk-Michulec, J., Crawford, A., Eslinger, P.W., Seibert, P., Orr, B., Philipp, A., Ross, O., Generoso, S., Achim, P., Schoeppner, M., Malo, A., Ringbom, A., Saunier, O., Quèlo, D., Mathieu, A., Kijima, Y., Stein, A., Chai, T., Ngan, F., Leadbetter, S.J., De Meutter, P., Delcloo, A., Britton, R., Davies, A., Glascoe, L.G., Lucas, D.D., Simpson, M.D., Vogt, P., Kalinowski, M., Bowyer, T.W., 2018, “International challenge to model the long-range transport of radioxenon released from medical isotope production to six Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations”, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 192, 667–686, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2018.01.030.

 

Sioris, C. E., Malo, A., McLinden, C. A., D’Amours, R., 2016, “Direct injection of water vapor into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions”, Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (14), 7694–7700, doi:10.1002/2016GL069918.

 

Eslinger, P. W., Bowyer, T. W., Achim, P., Chai, T., Deconninck, B., Freeman, K., Generoso, S., Hayes, P., Heidmann, V., Hoffman, I., Kijima, Y., Krysta, M., Malo, A., Maurer, C., Ngan, F., Robins, P., Ross, J. O., Saunier, O., Schlosser, C., Schöppner, M., Schrom, B. T., Seibert, P., Stein, A. F., Ungar, K., Yi, J., 2016, “International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station”, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 157, 41–51, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.03.001.

 

D’Amours, R., Malo, A., Flesch, T., Wilson, R., Gauthier, J.-P., Servranckx, R., 2015, “The Canadian Meteorological Centre’s Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling Suite”, Atmosphere-Ocean, 53 (2), 176–199, doi:10.1080/07055900.2014.1000260.

 

Draxler, R., Arnold, D., Chino, M., Galmarini, S., Hort, M., Jones, A., Leadbetter, S., Malo, A., Maurer, C., Rolph, G., Saito, K., Servranckx, R., Shimbori, T., Solazzo, E., Wotawa, G., 2015, “World Meteorological Organization’s Model Simulations of the Radionuclide Dispersion and Deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident”, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 139, 172–184, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2013.09.014.

 

Katata, G., Chino, M., Kobayashi, T., Terada, H., Ota, M., Nagai, H., Kajino, M., Draxler, R., Hort, M. C., Malo, A., Torii, T., Sanada, Y., 2015, “Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of an atmospheric dispersion model with an improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (2), 1029–1070, doi:10.5194/acp-15-1029-2015.

 

Health Canada, November 2015, “Special Environmental Radiation in Canada Report on Fukushima Accident Contaminants – Technical Report: Surveillance of Fukushima Emissions in Canada March 2011 to June 2011”, Radiation Protection Bureau, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 122 p, http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.801801/publication.html.

 

D’Amours, R., Mintz, R., Mooney, C., Wiens, B. J., 2013, “A modeling assessment of the origin of Beryllium-7 and Ozone in the Canadian Rocky Mountains”, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (7), 10125–10138, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50761.

 

Stocki, T. J., Ungar, R. K., D’Amours, R., Bean, M., Bock, K., Hoffman, I., Korpach, E., Malo, A., 2011, “North Korean nuclear test of October 9th, 2006: The utilization of health Canada’s radionuclide monitoring network and environment Canada’s atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling”, Radioprotection, 46 (6), S529–S534, doi:10.1051/radiopro/20116803s.

 

D’Amours, R., Malo, A., Servranckx, R., Bensimon, D., Trudel, S., Gauthier, J.-P., 2010, “Application of the atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model MLDP0 to the 2008 eruptions of Okmok and Kasatochi volcanoes”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D2), 1–11, doi:10.1029/2009JD013602.

 

 

ACRONYMS

 

AVHRR

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

CMC

Canadian Meteorological Centre

CWFIS

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System

EERS

Environmental Emergency Response Section

EOSDIS

Earth Observing System Data and Information System

GEM

Global Environmental Multiscale

HRDPS

High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System

MLDP

Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules

MODIS

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NASA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NEEC

National Environmental Emergencies Centre

NESDIS

National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWP

Numerical Weather Prediction

RSAC

Remote Sensing Applications Center

SPC

Storm Prediction Centre

USDA

United States Department of Agriculture

UTC

Coordinated Universal Time

VIIRS

Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite

WPM

Warning Preparedness Meteorologist

 

 

TIME ZONES

ADT

Atlantic Daylight Time

CDT

Central Daylight Time

CST

Central Standard Time

EDT

Eastern Daylight Time

EST

Eastern Standard Time

MDT

Mountain Daylight Time

NDT

Newfoundland Daylight Time

PDT

Pacific Daylight Time

 

 

 

Last update: 23 August 2022, 15:55 UTC